Tag Archive for accuracy of market projections

Signs of crude oil by rail market US share changes out towards 2017 // Forecast Volatility

This from a selective assessment from a Bismarck Tribune news report. //

As of the end of June 2015, the most recent figures available, shipments of Bakken crude oil from North Dakota via rail and pipeline were essentially equal: 47 percent by rail, 46 percent by pipeline. The rail shipments market share have gone down substantially since the peak in late 2014 says Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

The ability to make an economic forecast of oil by rail volume has demonstrated a MARKET VOLATILITY of about 25% within a half year period in 2015.

Expectations by various experts of future crude oil by rail may have to be tempered.

The data shows that the estimated rail export volumes of crude by rail leaving North Dakota peaked around 850,000 barrels per day at the end of 2014.

By June of 2015, the ND oil origin shipments by rail had dropped nearly 25% to around 640,000 barrels in the past 6-months.

Regardless of current 2015 market trends, the top year for future oil by rail out of North Dakota “might be” the year 2017. Given the global price of energy factors, it is difficult to predict. What do you think?

For more, see: http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/oil-shipments-by-rail-drop-as-pipeline-shipments-increase/article_6a02aa9b-55c0-5a28-8743-f2bc8b670e85.html