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Morgan Stanley Sees `Long Winter’ for Commodities // Based on historical bull to bear pattern

A commodities outlook news report by Bloomberg, Sep 14, 2015 The commodities bear market may last for many years, with oil dropping as low as $35 a barrel, as production cuts haven’t been sufficient to wipe out the global surplus, according to Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc.

A 200-year history of commodity prices shows they typically move between a decade of bull market and two decades of a bear market says the Head of Emerging Markets Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley.

It takes many years to clear the additional capacity that a bull market generates, he said. “China continues to be the central player as far as demand is concerned,” he said. “Even if the Chinese economy stabilizes, the industrial part of the economy is likely to be much weaker.”

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