Aug 20th to Aug 21st 2015
Not very transparent, the Official Chinese government economic growth reports are now being even more widely questioned.
Data from reputable private (independent) forecasting groups suggest that instead of a government source of about 6.8% to 7% range in China GDP growth this year, the real numbers might be closer to 5%. — and in the worse case assumption by a few news observers as low as 2%.
These numbers are way below the heady days of near 14% growth that fueled the Chinese market demand commodities during the boom years.
Bloomberg reported that a private estimate of Chinese manufacturing fell to the lowest level in more than six years… The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from Caixin Media and Markit Economics was at 47.1 for August. Numbers below 50 indicate contraction.
============ Markets around the world are reacting in the midst of Chinese economic uncertainty. The U.S. Stock markets were down significantly the past two days. And as just one other metric, the measured slump in the South African stock market and the rand currency as seen the lowest level this week in almost 14 years.
This market uncertainty is going to affect a lot of proposed railway freight projects around the world.
Within 48 hours of this type of alert news reporting on China’s manufacturing slowdown, the US stock market fell by another 3.2% on Friday the 21st (~530 points).