China’s imports of coking coal fell 24.2% to 14.7 million tonnes in the first four months of the 2015 from the same period last year.
Australia has about a 50% share of China’s imports Yet, shipments dropped 26.2 percent in the first four months as China’s steel production has fallen.
China’s imports from Mongolia increased by 9% to 4.5 million tonnes. It could have been higher if only Mongolia had a working export railway by now.
The next two largest coke coal suppliers are Canada and Russia. This year their shipments to China fell 14% and 39% respectively.
My technical observations.
MONGOLIA FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS as a COMPETITOR
The Mongolia customs price in northern China is about $46 a tonne as of April 2015. To that has to be added the rail cost to reach eastern Chinese steel producing markets. That adds a lot to the price given Mongolia’s poor rail infrastructure. It has zero heavy haul rail capability.
The quoted price from competing sources are $105 to $106 from Australia ~ $110 from Canada, ~ $93 from Russia mines Price to Japan Third quarter contracts for delivery from Australia to Japan were settled at $93 a tonne for premium hard coking coal, according to two people familiar with the negotiations says Reuters.
Back in 2012, the price was $330 a tonne.
The contract price tends to influence the spot price.
However, sellers need to price to a more reasonable long term contract rate to survive periodic economic down cycles.